Vegas lines are important for every DFS sport, but MLB DFS is probably the sport for which line movement in particular is most important. Withour new Vegas Dashboard, I have been studying implied runs and movement throughout the day more than I have at any time for any sport.
One question I’ve kept coming back to while researching is how to quantify movement. We can say that movement of 0.2 runs is significant, but just how significant is it? And does baseline matter? It seems like a line moving from 3.1 implied runs to 3.3 is different than a line moving from 4.7 to 4.9. Or is it different? You can see the sort of rabbit holes you can venture down when researching this subject.
In exploring these questions, I created what I’ll call a “movement matrix,” which shows the historical Plus/Minus for batters based on their line movement.
A Word of Warning
I’ll post the graphic in one moment, but I first want to give a word of warning. The matrix shouldn’t be used to target a specific movement. For example, you will see that batters have had a Plus/Minus of -2.17 when the line has moved from 4.2 to 5.1 runs and a Plus/Minus of +6.09 when the line has moved from 4.3 runs to 5.1 runs. That discrepancyis a result of small sample size. Of course, you shouldn’t target a team that moved to 5.1 runs simply becauseit started at 4.3 instead of 4.2.
There are small samples in the first graphic, in part because linesrarely move more than about 0.3 runs. I included all historical movement for teams projected between 3.0 and 5.5 runs, but be aware that the numbers closer to the edge of the distribution have significantly smaller samples than the numbers concentrated closer to the center.
So that you can see the impact of line movement moreclearly, I’ve also posted a second graphicincluding only movementthat does not exceed0.3 runs in either direction. Of the two graphics, I would lean more heavily on the second one.
Yes, I Still Have More to Say!
The matrices are best considered froma bird’s-eye view. With the conditional formatting,the data and value of theline movementsshould be fairly easy to visualize.Individual numbers in the graphicsmight be intriguing — but look less at the individual numbers and more at the colors. As you’ll see in the second graphic, batters on teams with high-projected totals have generally done well from a salary-based perspectiveeven with some negative line movement. That larger trend is more important than an individual number.
Here’s a quick note on how to read the graphics: the vertical axis (y) is the final run total and the horizontal axis (x) is the opening run total. For example, look at the -1.02 number three boxes in and two boxes down. That number is the Plus/Minus of batters when their teams opened at 3.2 runs and went down to 3.1 runs.
The Movement Matrix: Feast Your Eyes
Okay, without further ado, here is the first graphic (click to enlarge):
And here is the second, showing movement of no more than0.3 runs:
The first thing that stands out to me is that the graphic looks “right.” Generally, it increases from negative to positive asthe runsincrease.
The Takeaways
What’s intriguing and applicableis that an increase in runs on the lower end didn’t really boost batter value at all. The lesson here seems to be that low-implied teams are low-implied teams. Regardless of movement (unless it is extreme, which is rare and happens onlywith a late pitcher scratch or something), those teams tend toperform poorly.
The movement you want to focus on is at the upper range. When a team is already projected for a lot of runs, positive line movementhas shown to be really valuable, especially as you get into the 5.0-projected-runs territory.
The two takeaways for me are A) ride the Vegas lines, and B) don’t get fooled by line increases for low-projected teams.
There is a strong correlation between value and projected run total. Don’t get cute and go away from that in your cash games. Likewise, in both tournaments and cash, don’t get fooled into thinking that because a team increasedits run total by 0.2 runs from 3.1 to 3.3 runs that you’re all of a sudden getting an immense value.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Can We Predict Batted-Ball Profiles?Shorter Fences = More Fantasy Points…?The DFS Scoop About Rookie Pitchers
Vegas lines are important for every DFS sport, but MLB DFS is probably the sport for which line movement in particular is most important. Withour new Vegas Dashboard, I have been studying implied runs and movement throughout the day more than I have at any time for any sport.
One question I’ve kept coming back to while researching is how to quantify movement. We can say that movement of 0.2 runs is significant, but just how significant is it? And does baseline matter? It seems like a line moving from 3.1 implied runs to 3.3 is different than a line moving from 4.7 to 4.9. Or is it different? You can see the sort of rabbit holes you can venture down when researching this subject.
In exploring these questions, I created what I’ll call a “movement matrix,” which shows the historical Plus/Minus for batters based on their line movement.
A Word of Warning
I’ll post the graphic in one moment, but I first want to give a word of warning. The matrix shouldn’t be used to target a specific movement. For example, you will see that batters have had a Plus/Minus of -2.17 when the line has moved from 4.2 to 5.1 runs and a Plus/Minus of +6.09 when the line has moved from 4.3 runs to 5.1 runs. That discrepancyis a result of small sample size. Of course, you shouldn’t target a team that moved to 5.1 runs simply becauseit started at 4.3 instead of 4.2.
There are small samples in the first graphic, in part because linesrarely move more than about 0.3 runs. I included all historical movement for teams projected between 3.0 and 5.5 runs, but be aware that the numbers closer to the edge of the distribution have significantly smaller samples than the numbers concentrated closer to the center.
So that you can see the impact of line movement moreclearly, I’ve also posted a second graphicincluding only movementthat does not exceed0.3 runs in either direction. Of the two graphics, I would lean more heavily on the second one.
Yes, I Still Have More to Say!
The matrices are best considered froma bird’s-eye view. With the conditional formatting,the data and value of theline movementsshould be fairly easy to visualize.Individual numbers in the graphicsmight be intriguing — but look less at the individual numbers and more at the colors. As you’ll see in the second graphic, batters on teams with high-projected totals have generally done well from a salary-based perspectiveeven with some negative line movement. That larger trend is more important than an individual number.
Here’s a quick note on how to read the graphics: the vertical axis (y) is the final run total and the horizontal axis (x) is the opening run total. For example, look at the -1.02 number three boxes in and two boxes down. That number is the Plus/Minus of batters when their teams opened at 3.2 runs and went down to 3.1 runs.
The Movement Matrix: Feast Your Eyes
Okay, without further ado, here is the first graphic (click to enlarge):
And here is the second, showing movement of no more than0.3 runs:
The first thing that stands out to me is that the graphic looks “right.” Generally, it increases from negative to positive asthe runsincrease.
The Takeaways
What’s intriguing and applicableis that an increase in runs on the lower end didn’t really boost batter value at all. The lesson here seems to be that low-implied teams are low-implied teams. Regardless of movement (unless it is extreme, which is rare and happens onlywith a late pitcher scratch or something), those teams tend toperform poorly.
The movement you want to focus on is at the upper range. When a team is already projected for a lot of runs, positive line movementhas shown to be really valuable, especially as you get into the 5.0-projected-runs territory.
The two takeaways for me are A) ride the Vegas lines, and B) don’t get fooled by line increases for low-projected teams.
There is a strong correlation between value and projected run total. Don’t get cute and go away from that in your cash games. Likewise, in both tournaments and cash, don’t get fooled into thinking that because a team increasedits run total by 0.2 runs from 3.1 to 3.3 runs that you’re all of a sudden getting an immense value.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
Can We Predict Batted-Ball Profiles?Shorter Fences = More Fantasy Points…?The DFS Scoop About Rookie Pitchers
